Orion Magazine: World at Gunpoint

Editor: Yes indeed. I believe Derrick Jensen is asking the right question in this short article. What do you think?

Article link here: http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/4697/

NYTimes.com: Cities Lose Out on Road Funds From Federal Stimulus

US | July 09, 2009

Cities Lose Out on Road Funds From Federal Stimulus

By MICHAEL COOPER and GRIFF PALMER

A New York Times analysis found that transportation stimulus funds went disproportionately to rural areas, which advocates say could stall economic progress.

Editor: Rural roads rather than urban mass transit or rail links between cities? This is madness. It completely ignores the harsh fact that the oil economy is near death. This money is being flushed down the toilet. It's good to know our elected officials have been worse than useless up until the bitter end. I sent this comment to the Times but we need you to do the same plus write your Senator, Congresspersons, and the President. It's time that this money was targeted toward something useful and lasting.

Trailer for documentary "Tapped"

Editor: Another film to make you a nervous wreck. Enjoy!

Tapped Trailer

Tapped is a film that examines the role of the bottled water industry and its effects on our health, climate change, pollution, and our reliance on oil.

Telegraph UK: The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking

Editor: another good opinion piece about why we should not consider this period of relative calm a leveling on the way to business as usual.

Link to article here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5742937/The-unemployment-timebomb-is-quietly-ticking.html

NYTimes.com: Why the Imp in Your Brain Gets Out

HEALTH | July 07, 2009

Mind: Why the Imp in Your Brain Gets Out

By BENEDICT CAREY

Having the worst thing come to mind might make it more likely to happen.

Editor: Such impulses may be indicative of a social or cultural norm under scrutiny. Self-censorship is one means of controlling such impulses and the energy expended, as the article intimates, is large. Perhaps we should listen to what our subconscious is telling us and let loose a stream of honest opinion. It certainly would be entertaining and may just nudge the culture...

The Archdruid Report : Where Economics Fails

Editor: Very good analysis of primary versus secondary production.

Link: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2009/07/where-economics-fails.html

NYTimes.com: When Our Brains Short-Circuit

OPINION | July 02, 2009

Op-Ed Columnist: When Our Brains Short-Circuit

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

We're brilliantly programmed to act on the risks that confronted us in the Pleistocene Age but less adept with 21st-century challenges like climate change.

Editor: Great book by Ehrlich and Ornstein entitled New World/New Mind on this very subject.

On the darker side...waiting for the other shoe

The dark, wet days of early summer in the northeastern U.S. are fitting for how it seems many are feeling these days. As we've transitioned into a new season on the calendar, the weather hasn't followed suit. And as we've entered a new era after the economic crash of 2008 and the looming threats of climate change and peak resources, much of the world speaks not of these issues but guardedly anticipates a return to normalcy [sic]. I don't believe that's going to happen.

What will indeed happen is anyone's guess but there have been a number of plausible scenarios thrown out in the public domain recently. From Holmgren's Future Scenarios (see review here) and Bryn Davidson's Dynamic Cities Project scenarios to the possibilities envisioned by people like Kunstler and Duncan, there are optimists that include those who believe (wrongly, I think) that technology will be at the core of the solution and others who feel that a steady transition to the local may be feasible (I hope so but am skeptical). More pessimistic theorists suggest that some form of collapse will ensue or a disruptive decline and decay of modern society that would be less acute but no less devastating. Regardless of how post-industrialism transpires, there will certainly be significant changes in the economy and new governmental models to oversee the new landscapes. The more timultuous the transition, the less likely that the power structures will be benign.

If you haven't caught on the the reality of the political conversations and maneuverings in Washington related to energy and climate change, it should soon be clear to you that nothing substantive is going to happen. Nothing. Posturing and smoke screens will be the order of the day and in the end, the energy lobby and other business interests, unions and manufacturing groups, regular old citizens and chamber of commerce reps will all have their say and their words will once again rule the day. Will you be surprised? Confused? Wasn't this all supposed to change now that we have a "progressive" democratic president and a supermajority in Congress? It should have been clear to you through the euphoria of "change and hope discourse" that it wasn't really going to be all that different than before. Certainly the faces have changed and the rhetoric has been toned down. But the central core philosophy and culture remains the same. Free markets, growth, consumption, lifestyle centers, gated communities, iPods, Twitter, corn syrup, and Jenny Craig are still our reason for being.

Yet as I intimated at the beginning of this piece, there is an undercurrent of discomfort, a constant feeling of unease and that something is out there, looming, waiting to either flood over us or creep up slowly in our midst. And I also feel that many believe that we should be doing something, preparing, changing our lives, meeting the challenge. But what challenge? And how should we go about it? The mainstream media isn't really picking up on this and water cooler discussions remain stuck on sports and reality television.

Jason Bradford articulates the disconnect in his article on The Oil Drum when he observes that a tractor pull in Willits, CA drew ten times as many people as the relocalization events that he's hosted in the city. The metaphor could be that we can take breaks during our powder cocaine rehab sessions and freebase (or do crack). Are we really so nuts? Is it possible that our culture is irredeemable? As long as there are strong countercurrents to the efforts to course correct our civilization richly funded by the very enterprises that benefit from the status quo, the messages and information necessary to shift the culture will not carry enough water to make a significant difference.

Scholars of propaganda are aware of the amount of research and funding that undergirds the messages being developed and broadcast to counter climate change science, peak oil estimates, noted threatened ecosystems, and numerous other incursions on the natural world and indigenous cultures by industrial capitalism. The number of law firms, public relations firms, think tanks, and foundations that are funded by extractors, polluters, manufacturers, financiers, bankers, and other members of the culture of growth and development is staggering and their bankroll is essentially global wealth personified. How do you compete against this? Or, how do you compete with this on their own home playing field?

Bradford raises other interesting questions in his post that shed some light on why efforts to (pick one...or more: save nature, save humanity, protect the biosphere, reverse climate change, meet the threats of peak resources, develop a sustainable society...) are so difficult. There is what he refers to as "dueling neurotransmitters" that one one hand warn that an activity like tractor pulls is bad for the earth (in several ways) but that we are also luridly attracted to the spectacle with its noise, visual appeals, crowd induced excitement, and other social, psychological, and physiological attractants. I can personally relate to this dichotomy of feelings regarding a destructive aspect of our culture with my own family's relationship to the industrial system that was the foundation of our society. My grandfather used to bring his children to downtown Cleveland on weekends to see firsthand the power and majesty of industrialism including steel mills, ore boats, trains with West Virginia coal, and other trappings of manufacture. While much of this had been dismantled by the 1980's, there was enough left for my mother and I to pay a Sunday visit to Jones & Laughlin Steel to photograph the eerie snaking and hissing steam pipes and view the coke furnace billowing steam from a safe distance. I admit as an avid and staunch environmentalist that there was and still remains a thrilling respect for the power of these operations. Just spend an afternoon at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, MI and you might get a feel for what I'm talking about.

And that's a problem. Unless we can shed that part of our psyches that continues to revel, love, respect, lust, and worship the trappings of industrial culture, we will never have the will and resolve to cast it aside and establish something sustainable. But until that happens, it seems likely that this tension between recognition that we need to protect ourselves and our planet on one hand and the love and devotion we have for the products and conveniences of modern civilization on the other will continue to result in the type of torpor and passiveness we're now experiencing.

One final thought on this current period of relative inactivity give the threats facing us. Post Carbon Institute Executive Director Asher Miller provided a disturbing scenario when in his article Disaster Transitionism he posits that military and xenophobic (and probably corporate) types are very likely planning for the very threats that they publicly denigrate and scoff at which would result in a far different type of future than many of us hope to transition to. Leaving the planning for the future to these sorts once again would be an abdication of responsibility of epic proportions. Whether your interest is to plan for the future in a positive and hopeful manner as is offered by the Transition Initiative or something less community oriented and preservationist focused, at least recognize the threats and proactively seek to prepare for the other shoe to drop.

Energy Bulletin: Disaster Transitionism

In one of the most sobering pieces on the looming transition in our society, Asher Miller's piece in the Energy Bulletin this week describes what people and organizations that do not necessarily have your best interests at heart are doing right now to prepare for the future. He suggests that 1) we should be aware of this, and 2) that we should be working diligently to create our own future scenario. Most importantly, we should be community building. My own perspective on what this actually means is under development but should be close to "lifeboat building" to be frank. Miller's thought provoking visual imagery could be captured by Atwood's novel Oryx and Crake but not so much JHK's World Made By Hand.

So just what does community building mean to you?

Find Miller's article here: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49390

On the lighter side...in the sporting vein

Cleveland Blues

For those of you who don't care about team sports or a frivolous reference to a new post-peak oil sport conceived of by my son, please read no further or skip down a few posts. When I was a kid, I lamented the looming elimination of cars in favor of hovercraft or flying vehicles. I dearly wanted the opportunity to drive a sports car. At that time my passions were stoked by the Ferrari 275 GTB and Lamborghini Muira. Never did get to drive either one but had a few rides here and there. But my fears were unfounded and I got to drive a few cars in my time, to the tune of over a million miles no doubt by now. I couldn't care less what my next car will be. Maybe I'll get lucky and live somewhere I don't need one...or perhaps a Vespa. I digress.

My biggest fears now relate to whether I'll ever see a national championship in my lifetime for any team from the City of Cleveland, Ohio, USA. Before I was born and up until 1964, teams from the industrial city extraordinaire regularly won football or baseball titles. The Indians last won it in 1948 and the Browns in 1964, when I was four years old. So since I've been sports-conscious, say beginning around 1971, there have been only six reasonable opportunities for a Cleveland Championship. So now that industrial civilization only has a few more years left (you know...peak resources, climate change, economic chaos, social dysfunction), will one of my teams make it with the time left?

Let's take each in order by team:

1. Cleveland Browns: I have been following the Browns since the mid-1980's primarily because having lived in Michigan for a few years, I had the misfortune of tying my football hopes to the Lions and MSU Spartans. When Bernie Kosar was leading the Browns, we had a couple of great shots at a berth in the Super Bowl, each of which were squelched by golden boy John Elway. Since that time, opportunitities were few, punctuated by a three year hiatus while a new/old franchise was reconstituted. This new version has been worse than the early Bucaneers or the Lions for most of their existence. At least their uniforms are cutting edge.
   
   
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Other that the Miracle of Richfield and the Price/Dougherty/Harper era, the current LeBron James era has been the only realistic chance the Cavs have ever had to claiming an NBA title. Their showing against San Antonio in 2007 was pathetic. The expectations heaped upon them in 2009 after 66 regular season wins and an 8-0 start in the playoffs only made the melt against Orlando all the more soul-numbing. With the recent acquisition of the 37 year old Shaquille O'Neal and the possibility of signing Charlie Villanueva, perhaps the Cavs might actually do it. Can O'Neal muster the energy?
   
   
3. Cleveland Indians: In 1995, they won 100 of 144 games and had the most feared lineup since the murderers row Yankees. Pitching quieted them in the World Series. They made it back to the Series in 1997 and the Florida Marlins beat them. Florida. Just a few years after their birth. Various personnel changes over the next four years resulted in an old, expensive, tired team under new ownership who couldn't afford the way the Indians did business in the 1990's. Getting to within one game of the World Series in 2007 after a slow rebuilding process was a bit of a chimera since, IMHO, they were not a deep and consistent team. They rode the season on career years from most of their players. That's why they've fallen so far this year. They do have some promising players in the minors but no depth or redundancy.

In summary, Cleveland and its fans are as deserving as any city and given the economic climate and condition of neighborhoods, it's the least they could experience to make their lives a bit less difficult.

Vote for best Opportunity: Cleveland Cavaliers

New Sport for Post-Peak Oil Era

My Son and I were chatting about what kind of sports might be popular during "The Long Emergency" (thanks JHK), and he conceived of a game that could be played using the trunks of abandoned automobiles. He called it Trunkball. As he was describing how it would be played, I became more interested in seeing how it might actually work. We discussed it further, wrote it out on a legal pad, and gave it a try. We used the trunk of my 2005 Toyota Camry and a miniature soccer ball (5") and it was an amazing success.

It's a two person game, one on one, and requires very little equipment, doesn't last interminably long, and takes a small space at minimum (although more space adds to the cardio benefits). Now it is a game that can be played between children and adults but it can be a rough game so be sure to read the rules and consider the disclaimers. I would recommend our Blog site and read the rules and description of the game. After that, consider hitting the WikiHow site explaining the game in more depth. Let us know how you like it. Leagues are forming now.

Book Review: “Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change” by David Holmgren

By Mark Archambault, Special Guest Contributor to The Localizer

David Holmgren, one of the originators of the permaculture concept, has recently written what I believe is one of the best books on the societal implications of peak oil and climate change to be published over the last several years. His book “Future Scenarios, How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change” (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008), is a concise, well-written exploration of a range of possible futures facing humanity given certain assumptions about the interplay between the key variables of peak oil and climate change over the next few decades. One of the most thought provoking and I believe useful observations he makes in the book is the distinction between energy descent and collapse, which I will relate shortly after exploring his main scenarios.

The author considers energy--and more importantly whether future energy supplies will likely increase, remain stable, or decrease--to be the most important variable in assessing potential futures. In the book, he first considers four meta-level energy-driven scenarios for the long-term future, these being ‘techno-explosion’, ‘techno-stability’, ‘energy descent’ and ‘collapse’. ‘Techno-explosion’ can be thought of as the science fiction future of continual growth made possible by energy breakthroughs such as nuclear fusion and free energy from the vacuum of space. Humanity is able to transcend the limits to growth on a finite planet through continual technological innovation and space colonization. The amount of energy available to mankind increases steadily over time, with no end in sight to available energy and the economic and population growth this makes possible. Though this scenario may have looked like the potential future when Arthur C. Clarke wrote the classic “2001, A Space Odyssey”, most policy makers now seem willing to concede that the odds of it coming to pass are vanishing more rapidly than the dwindling oil reserves of Mexico’s Canterell field.

In ‘Techno-stability’ he envisions “a seamless conversion from material growth based on depleting fossil energy to a steady-state in consumption of resources and population, if not economic activity.” This seems to be the scenario envisioned by politicians and corporations promoting the conversion to a ‘green economy’, yet who do not realize or acknowledge that no combination of renewable energy resources will enable industrial society to run as it has been running on fossil fuels, as repeatedly emphasized by James H. Kunstler. In Techno-stability the amount of energy available to humanity may fall a bit during the transition, but will stabilize thereafter allowing for a newer, greener business as usual economy. Later in the book, however, he acknowledges the “small problem of reforming the monetary system away from dependence on perpetual growth without inducing financial collapse”. Or, as Michael Ruppert puts it, “until you change the way money works, you change nothing”. Holmgren echoes the opinion of such researchers as Robert Hirsh in stating that a smooth transition away from an economy based on fossil fuels to one based on renewable energy is unlikely this late in the game without severe economic and geo-political crises. Hirsh, in a recent study prepared for the US Department of Energy, found that industrial societies will require at least a decade of intensive effort in advance of peak oil to avoid the hard landing of a severe economic downturn that results from the growing gap between supply and demand for liquid fuels. In light of this, it therefore appears increasingly unlikely that even techno-stability can be achieved.

This understanding leads the author to explore what he considers the most likely long-term future, ‘energy descent’. Energy descent “involves a reduction of economic activity, social complexity and population in some way as fossil fuels are depleted. The increasing reliance on renewable resources of lower energy density will change the structure of society to reflect that of pre-industrial societies”. He doesn’t see energy descent as a smooth process either, but as one that will be marked by crisis periods interspersed by temporary stable states, with the amount of energy available and societal complexity decreasing with each step down the ladder, until a new long-term steady state is achieved.

The author then further breaks down energy descent into four sub-scenarios based on how climate change / global warming and the post peak oil era might manifest over the next 10 – 30 years. The main variables he chooses are whether the near term impacts of global warming / climate change are severe or somewhat benign, and whether post-peak oil decline rates are high or low. He expresses this in graphic form in a chart that appears on page 60 of his book, reproduced below. Oil depletion appears on the X axis and global warming impacts on the Y axis. The four energy descent scenarios that emerge from this schema are ‘Brown-Tech’, ‘Green-Tech’, ‘Earth Steward’ and ‘Lifeboats’.



The ‘Brown-Tech’ scenario results from the combination of slow oil decline rates and the rapid onset of adverse climate impacts. There is a strong emphasis on providing liquid fuels from unconventional oil such as tar sands and coal as described in the Hirsh report. Strong national / corporatist governments provide centralized responses to the energy crisis, though unfortunately ones that exacerbate the release of greenhouse gases. Over time, this scenario devolves into the lifeboat scenario described below.

In ‘Green-Tech’, enabled by benign climate change and low post-peak oil decline rates, much emphasis is placed on developing renewable energy resources, especially wind and solar. The economy is robust enough that relatively large scale deployment of these renewable energy technologies is possible. A resurgence of local and regional economies helps the country power-down to the extent necessary to take advantage of the lower amounts of energy (compared to that available from fossil fuels) available from the larger scale solar and wind projects developed under this scenario. Holmgren believes that over time – decades perhaps – this scenario will evolve into the Earth Steward scenario as available energy continues its relentless decline.

In the ‘Earth Steward’ scenario, severe economic impacts from rapid oil decline – ten percent or more per year – bring about a complete collapse of the world monetary and financial system, thereby preventing the rapid, large scale deployment of renewable energy technologies as in ‘Green-Tech’. However, small scale deployment of these at the household and village level is a key component of the energy mix in this scenario. Climate change is relatively mild. This is a very agrarian scenario, with permaculture playing a large role in how food is produced. ‘Earth Steward’ appears to be similar to the ‘catabolic collapse’ scenario mapped out by John Michael Greer in his book “The Long Descent”. ‘Earth Steward’ perhaps best expresses the vision of long-term sustainability as envisioned by Permaculture and the Transition Towns movements.

The ‘Lifeboats’ scenario is the most challenging of the energy descent pathways. In this scenario, severe economic impacts from rapid oil decline combined with the severe rapid onset of climate change disruptions lead to a rapid decline in societal complexity and the ability to maintain large, centralized governments and institutions. Still, enough knowledge and technology makes it through this transition to allow civilization to continue in somewhat isolated pockets.

This contrasts with his discussion of total collapse which equates to total system failure without the restabilization possible in any of these energy descent scenarios. “The retention of cultural knowledge of the past combined with a moderately habitable environment allow new civilizations to emerge that build on at least some of the knowledge and lessons from ours.” Holmgren believes that “the all encompassing use of the term collapse is too broad a definition and inconsistent with our normal understanding of the term as a rapid and complete process.” I concur. ‘Future Scenarios’ provides a much more nuanced view of our near-term future than that envisioned by many writers and bloggers on the topics of peak oil and climate change. The frequent use of the term ‘collapse’ can lead one to believe that is too late for any effective action, though as Holmgren writes, that is far from the truth.

Will the near term future of energy descent fall neatly into one of David Holmgren’s four scenarios? That is perhaps unlikely, as many factors besides climate change and post peak oil decline rates will determine how society powers down over the next few decades.

It appears that government and corporate forces are moving the United States into a sort of hybrid between brown-tech and green-tech, in an attempt to at least achieve a relatively stable if slow growing economy in the near term. It is understandable, if frustrating for peak oil activists, that our key institutions will try to keep business as usual going for as long as possible. There will eventually come a time, though, when this effort cannot be maintained, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. But for now, scenario building of the sort developed by Holmgren in this book can help us make sense of the changes bearing down on us in the years ahead.

This short (115 pages), illustration-rich book is also the perfect tool, along with Chris Martenson’s ‘Crash Course’, for enlightening our elected representatives at all levels of government on the relationship between energy and the economy, the likelihood of energy descent and the need for an economic system that can function in the face of it. Though it is perhaps too soon to tell just how energy descent will manifest over the next few years, this timely and well-written book will certainly contribute to the debate and provide a framework for understanding and working with the changes that are bearing down on us.
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Mark Archambault is a Land-Use and Environmental Protection Planner with the Nashua River Watershed Association in Groton, MA.

NYTimes.com: Betraying the Planet

OPINION | June 29, 2009

Op-Ed Columnist: Betraying the Planet

By PAUL KRUGMAN

Climate change poses a clear and present danger to our way of life. How can anyone justify failing to act?

NYTimes.com: It's Now Legal to Catch a Raindrop in Colorado

US | June 29, 2009

It's Now Legal to Catch a Raindrop in Colorado

By KIRK JOHNSON

New laws allow residents to begin rainwater harvesting, a practice that water rights laws once prohibited.

Editor: Can you imagine that collecting rainwater a-n-y-w-h-e-r-e would be illegal? It's just another way to keep people dependent for life's requirements on the system. Kudos to people in places like Bolivia and India to rise up against corporate control of groundwater. Maybe if things get bad enough, Americans might acquire some guts and rise up against the corporate machine themselves.

Observations from the "war" - Part 2

I'm beginning to more frequently refer to the way humans treat the natural environment as war. This isn't new, of course, but the phrase needs to circulate more freely and widely in the public domain so that it becomes more culturally standardized. Somehow we need to convey the urgency and scale of humanity's assault on its own nest.

I had a chance to visit the coast of Maine this weekend for a family gathering. Great times were had by all but as my custom, I couldn't help notice the damaged landscapes. The first thing that caught my eye was the flotsam scattered across the sea on our trip out to the island. Numerous plastic bags, drink can rings, motor oil bottles, and other plastic debris mixed with seaweed and the smoke of the boat's inboard motor assaulted my senses and reduced the joy of observing the more distant vistas of rocky islands covered with evergreens.

Later over the weekend, I had the chance to hike around the island with my children. The rocky coast was littered with washed up debris that included old lobster traps, Styrofoam buoys, rubber gloves, drink bottles, beer cans, and countless unidentified plastic pieces of crap. I've vented about litter observed along the highway and while I don't understand the astonishing ignorance that feeds these behaviors, it is truly stupefying to me that people throw their shit in the ocean or in lakes and streams. If this is found in coastal Maine far from the urban centers, I can only imagine what it looks like these days around Coney Island, Virginia Beach, Biloxi, or San Diego.

A few other minor points I took away from this holiday included the clearcutting of this island a few years back, a practice that is expected to increase on Maine islands ostensibly due to insect infestations and fire threats. I was happy to see a solar power installation with an array of batteries powering a portion of the island's energy needs. But I am more skeptical than ever of our ability to reverse course and begin repairing the damage and reducing the degradation to nature. While the lives of our children and their children rely on such a prospect, I don't see any evidence that we'll be able to pull it off. Even a gentle contraction and fall of civilization will likely result in a supernova of resource extraction that may devastate the biosphere for healthy human habitation for too many generations to be of interest to us. I am growing weary and impatient with climate change skeptics, litterers, loggers and timber interests, and numerous other cogs in the machine of death. How about you?

North Bay Bohemian: Cheer Up, It's Going to Get Worse

"Three years ago, David Fridley purchased two and a half acres of land in rural Sonoma County. He planted drought-resistant blue Zuni corn, fruit trees and basic vegetables while leaving a full acre of extant forest for firewood collection. Today, Fridley and several friends and family subsist almost entirely off this small plot of land, with the surplus going to public charity.

"But Fridley is hardly a homegrown hippie who spends his leisure time gardening. He spent 12 years consulting for the oil industry in Asia. He is now a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and a fellow of the Post Carbon Institute in Sebastopol, where members discuss the problems inherent to fossil-fuel dependency.

"Fridley has his doubts about renewable energies, and he has grave doubts about the future of crude oil. In fact, he believes to a certainty that society is literally running out of gas and that, perhaps within years, the trucks will stop rolling into Safeway and the only reliable food available will be that grown in our backyards."

Find full article here: http://www.bohemian.com/bohemian/06.17.09/feature-0924.html#